Troika! d66 probability clusters (this post is wrong)

So if you're using d66 tables what you are rolling is 2d6, which creates a bell curve probability spread. Settlers of Catan was what got me thinking of it: the game has little number tiles which are spread around to determine which areas produce resources on a given turn. 2 and 12 show up infrequently, though 6-8 are quite common, and everything else spreads out between those extremes. This is a result of adding the two dice results together, and how frequently or infrequently certain sums are arrived at by that addition.

If you're rolling 2d6 for PbtA games only the sum (the bell curve average) matters, but if you're rolling d66 the individual die results are also relevant.
Observe these lists of Troika! backgrounds divided first by sum,
then subdivided by die order:
2
11
Giant of Corda
3
12-21 
Befouler of Ponds, Demon Stalker
4
13-22-31 
Burgler, Dwarf, Gremlin Catcher
5
14-23-32-41 
Cacogen, Epopt, Guild of Sharp Corners, Necromancer
6
15-24-33-42-51 
Chaos Champion, Exotic Warrior, Lansquenet, Parchment Witch, Skeptical Lamassu, 
7
16-25-34-43-52-61 
Claviger, Fellowship of Knidos, Lonesome Monarch, Poorly-made Dwarf, Academy of Doors, Thinking Engine
8
26-35-44-53-62 
Porters & Basin Fillers, Miss Kinsey's Dining Club, Questing Knight, College of Friends, Vengeful Child
9
36-45-54-63 
Monkey-monger, Red Priest, Sublime Beefsteak, Venturesome Academic
10
46-55-64
Rhino-man, Knight of the Swordbringer, Wizard Hunter
11
56-65 
Thaumaturge, Yongardy Lawyer
12
66 
Zoanthrop

And because the bell curve average, backgrounds with sums of 6 or 7 or 8 (16 backgrounds in all) would show up in nearly every randomly generated party. Like, probably there will be at least one representative of those sixteen backgrounds in a party of 4 new characters. Right?

And this probability distribution would logically extend to other d66 tables, like the Oops! or Random Spell tables in the main Troika! rules. 

It's almost a series of sub-categories arrived at by the metric of "likelihood person of said background finds themselves adventuring". Something like: nearly everyone has met a Lonesome Monarch (or three) and Skeptical Lamassu remain as numerous as Vengeful Children, yet fewer can truly claim that they have traveled with Rhino-men or Demon Stalkers?

The implications seem very interesting. Intentional placement on lists to cultivate likelihood will assuredly become a trend for me going forward.

Comments

  1. I feel like any arbitrary group of 16 backgrounds are equally likely; so, there is nothing special about digits in the numbers for these 16 backgrounds adding to 6, 7, or 8. There is only 36 possible combinations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. anonymous, you are correct that there are only 36 possible rolls. There are 11 possible sums those rolls add up to. The thing is, they aren't "arbitrary" numbers, they are numbers laid along a probability curve.
      A further example:
      Let's say we choose two sets of backgrounds
      -6s (five results total)
      &
      -3s and 10s (again, five results in total)

      If we roll 2d6 many times, we find that certain sums show up more than others. We will always roll more 6s and 8s than we will 2s or 12s, for instance. 3s and 10s are more common than 2s and 12s, but still they aren't as common as 6s, so if we keep rolling and rolling we will see more 6 results than the others.

      To be more extreme about it:
      If one set was 2s, 3s, 11s, and 12s (six results in total), and the other set was 7s (another six results), over time you will roll more sevens than twos, threes, elevens, or twelves combined.

      I picked 6, 7, and 8 as examples in the OP because they the median, most common, rolls, and therefore the sixteen backgrounds they represent likely get rolled more often on average than the others.

      Does that make it more clear for you?

      Delete
    2. I don't think that's true though. The background for 3,4 is just as likely as the background for 1,1; 1-in-36.

      In your reply, you mention that 7 will be rolled more often than 2, 3, 11, and 12 combined. That doesn't sound right to me. Both groups have a 6-in-36 chance of being rolled.

      If you are saying something like "backgrounds for 6, 7, 8 are all urban, and other numbers are for rural". Then I can kind of see your point, but you could also get the same effect as listing city backgrounds for the first 16 backgrounds.

      Delete
    3. Yeah, you're picking up what I'm going for! So for the example of a background list, something like:

      2s & 12s: noble house
      7s: nomadic tribe
      11s: sorcerer-monk
      4s: craft guild
      .... and all other results (3s, 5s, 6s, 8s, 9s, & 10s) are indebted serfs of some kind.

      It's a poor example in the OP maybe because the Troika! table (I suspect) is not arranged with this in mind...? I dunno, follow-up posts are in the works!

      Delete

Post a Comment